12 小時前
I was called delusional, when I wrote that 1 Lighter point could be worth $6 in April this year.
2025/04/20
I was asked a few times to calculate potential value of 1 point on @Lighter_xyz. Let's find it out then. First mistake many people do, while comparing Lighter with others is looking at the volumes. Looking at only this metric we may think Lighter, even thou this project is in its beta phase, has volume close to 50% of Hyperliquid's. This approach is quite wrong, because Lighter currently has 0 fees and a ton of this volume is basically a wash trading volume trying to get some points. Let's look at the other metrics: We can see that Lighter at current stage should be more compared to platforms like dYdX, Synfutures, Vertex, than HL itself. Based only on the data and using super simple comparison, we receive this On average FDV/OI and FDV/TVL ratio is around 2. We come up with an estimated FDV for Lighter at $150m. Note that Lighter is at super early stage and I guess it will grow a lot once they open their mainnet for everyone. For now on based on the info above and potential 50% airdrop to points holders, what was mentioned on one of the spaces, that it may happen we would receive around $75m airdropped to points holders. If points program runs until the end of the year we will have around 12m points in total in ciculation, meaning that each point will be worth around $6.
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