永恒牛市-牛市开空

ALGO｜Algorand To truly understand Algorand, don't rush to see whether it's red or green on that day. The more important question is whether the market is still willing to pay for the L1/payment/RWA logic at this point, and it just happens to be at the center of this issue. Based on its current scale, it is roughly in the billion-dollar range, focusing on L1/payment/RWA. When it moves, discussions will follow, not just because of price stimulation, but also because it connects to the emotions and judgments of the entire track behind it. No matter how high the surface heat is, what ultimately determines sustainability is whether on-chain usage has picked up, how quickly projects are advancing, and whether large funds are willing to return repeatedly. Returning to the direction of L1/payment/RWA, whether Algorand is worth continued pricing is not about the volume of discussions, but whether it can turn temporary attention into sustained usage. In terms of prospects, as long as there is real demand along the L1/payment/RWA line, it will not completely lose its discussion value. However, the market is currently more focused on realization, so what’s more critical moving forward is not telling new stories, but actually delivering on existing logic. But it does have its shortcomings. As soon as funding preferences shift, competitors start to accelerate, or project progress slows down, prices often reflect concerns first. If we can still see activity, retention, and new scenarios moving forward, Algorand's position will be more solid; but if the data only looks good in the short term, expectations for a pullback will come quickly. Whether it’s hot today is not important; what matters is looking back in a few months to see if there is still funding and users on this line.

EGLD｜MultiversX MultiversX is often mistakenly read as just an ordinary token. But if you take a step back, you'll see that the market is repeatedly trading it, essentially trading the future of L1/sharding/payment. In terms of scale, it is roughly in the billion-dollar range, and the track can be categorized into L1/sharding/payment. It continues to be remembered because the core functionality behind it has not disappeared; it just adjusts in valuation as the environment changes. Rather than being swayed by short-term fluctuations, it's better to focus on more stable variables: ecosystem activity, liquidity quality, development progress, and whether there is real demand. Returning to the direction of L1/sharding/payment, whether MultiversX is worth continued pricing is not about the volume of discussion, but whether it can turn temporary attention into sustained use. In terms of prospects, as long as there is real demand along the line of L1/sharding/payment, it will not completely lose its discussion value. However, the market is currently more focused on realization, so what’s more critical moving forward is not to tell new stories, but to truly execute the existing logic. It must be acknowledged that this type of coin fears not short-term pullbacks, but rather being replaced by stronger competitors in core logic. Once replacement occurs, revaluation will happen faster than expected. If we can still see activity, retention, and new scenarios continuing to progress, MultiversX's position will be more solid; but if the data only looks good in the short term, expectations of a pullback will come quickly. Ultimately, whether there is potential depends on realization. If realization cannot be achieved, no matter how beautiful the story is, it will only serve as fuel for short-term trading. #美司法部：不起诉加密开发者

SAND｜The Sandbox Many people feel that the story of The Sandbox has been told quite a bit, but that's not necessarily true. As long as the metaverse/gaming/NFT narrative is not exhausted, it will continue to periodically return to the center of the market. It is currently roughly in the upper billion-dollar range, belonging to the metaverse/gaming/NFT sector. Whether it can continue to be priced depends not on slogans, but on whether scenarios continue to unfold and whether funds remain. Right now, looking at this coin, the most useful thing is not to chase news, but to focus on a few harder indicators: on-chain activity, transaction structure, development progress, and capital inflow. Returning to the direction of the metaverse/gaming/NFT, whether The Sandbox is worth continued pricing does not depend on the volume of discussion, but on whether it can turn temporary attention into sustained usage. In terms of prospects, as long as there is real demand in the metaverse/gaming/NFT narrative, it will not completely lose its discussion value. However, the market is currently more focused on realization, so what’s more critical moving forward is not to tell new stories, but to truly execute the existing logic. The risks are not complicated: once the heat of the sector declines, or the ecosystem realizes slower than expected, such assets are usually the first to encounter valuation compression. If we can still see activity, retention, and new scenarios moving forward, The Sandbox's position will be more solid; but if the data only looks good in the short term, the expected pullback will come quickly. When looking at such assets, the focus is not on daily fluctuations, but on whether it can stabilize and clarify its position more and more. #美司法部：不起诉加密开发者

MANA｜Decentraland The market's attitude towards Decentraland has never been simply one of like or dislike. It's more about repeatedly confirming: Is there still a necessity to continue down the path of the metaverse/social? In terms of scale, it roughly belongs to the billion-dollar level and still falls within the metaverse/social track. Its role in the market is not just as a price symbol; many times, it also serves as a tool for expressing expectations in capital allocation. Whether it can continue to rise is not based on imagination but rather on several hard indicators: user retention, protocol revenue, trading depth, and whether new scenarios can catch on. Bringing it back to the direction of the metaverse/social, whether Decentraland is worth continued pricing does not depend on the volume of discussion but rather on whether it can turn temporary attention into sustained usage. In terms of prospects, as long as there is real demand for the metaverse/social line, it will not completely lose its discussion value. However, the market is currently more focused on realization, so what’s more critical moving forward is not to tell new stories but to truly execute the existing logic. The issue has never been that no one knows about it, but rather that the market is now more pragmatic. If new users cannot come in, revenue cannot keep up, and applications are insufficient, the enthusiasm will quickly dissipate. If we can still see activity, retention, and new scenarios moving forward, Decentraland's position will be more solid; but if the data only looks good in the short term, the expected pullback will come quickly. So to see if it has staying power, don’t just look at the volume; also see if the enthusiasm can be retained and ultimately turn into data and usage. #鲍威尔4·29议息：任期收官之战

FLOW｜Flow Focusing only on short-term fluctuations, it's easy to underestimate Flow. But what the market is really entangled with has never been whether it moved today, but whether the logic of NFT/entertainment/sports is still worth valuing. It is currently roughly in the billion-dollar range, leaning towards NFT/entertainment/sports. It remains in the mainstream not because the story is well told, but because the three aspects of usage, trading, and trend mapping have not been interrupted. What truly determines whether it can go far is not short-term hype, but whether on-chain usage, project advancement pace, and large capital can continue to flow back. Returning to the direction of NFT/entertainment/sports, whether Flow is worth continued pricing does not depend on the volume of discussion, but on whether it can turn temporary attention into sustained usage. In terms of prospects, as long as there is real demand in the NFT/entertainment/sports line, it will not completely lose its discussion value. However, the market is currently more focused on realization, so what’s more critical moving forward is not telling new stories, but truly executing the existing logic. Of course, it is not without pressure. Once the funding style shifts, competitors speed up, or project advancement slows down, the market will first respond in price. If we can still see activity, retention, and new scenarios moving forward, Flow's position will be more solid; but if the data only looks good in the short term, expectations of a pullback will come quickly. Right now, the market does not have too many illusions when looking at Flow. Those who are optimistic continue to focus on realization, while those who are not optimistic will not turn back just because of a few stories. In the end, whether the market will continue to give a higher valuation still depends on whether this logic can be repeatedly validated, rather than on who can shout louder. #鲍威尔4·29议息：任期收官之战

QNT｜Quant The fact that Quant has lasted until now itself shows that it is not just surviving on a whim. What truly supports it is that the market has yet to reach a final conclusion on the interoperability/enterprise chain track. From a scale perspective, it roughly falls into the billion-dollar range, and its direction remains in interoperability/enterprise chains. Every time it experiences a significant fluctuation, the market reacts immediately. The reason is not just the price itself, but also the overall sentiment of the entire track it represents. Instead of chasing short-term emotions, what is truly worth monitoring are more stable factors: ecosystem activity, liquidity quality, development progress, and real demand. Returning to the direction of interoperability/enterprise chains, whether Quant is worth continued pricing does not depend on the volume of discussions, but rather on whether it can transform periodic attention into sustained usage. In terms of prospects, as long as there is real demand in the interoperability/enterprise chain line, it will not completely lose its discussion value. However, the market is currently more focused on realization, so what is more critical moving forward is not to tell new stories, but to genuinely execute the existing logic. What these types of assets truly fear is not a single pullback, but rather the underlying logic being overtaken by stronger solutions. If it comes to that point, market re-evaluation usually happens quickly. If we can still see activity, retention, and new scenarios continuing to progress, Quant's position will be more solid; but if the data only looks good in the short term, the expected pullback will also come quickly. Judging whether there is momentum, the biggest fear is only looking at the present. Extending the view to a few months later, whether funds and users have remained is the key.

RUNE｜THORChain Some coins look hot at first glance, THORChain, on the other hand, is more like a project that requires a closer look to understand its weight. Because the cross-chain DEX/native cross-chain behind it is not a race that can be won or lost with just a slogan. In terms of market cap, it roughly belongs to the billion-dollar level and is classified under cross-chain DEX/native cross-chain. The market hasn't easily let it go because its functionality still holds. However, the valuation of such coins will inherently fluctuate with the environment. Instead of chasing news, it's better to focus on more solid factors: on-chain activity, transaction structure, development pace, and whether funds are flowing back. Bringing it back to the direction of cross-chain DEX/native cross-chain, whether THORChain deserves to be continuously priced does not depend on the volume of discussions, but on whether it can turn temporary attention into sustained usage. In terms of prospects, as long as there is real demand for cross-chain DEX/native cross-chain, it will not completely lose its discussion value. However, the market is currently more focused on realization, so what’s more critical moving forward is not to tell new stories, but to truly execute the existing logic. Its risk points are very clear. Once the sector cools down, or if the ecosystem does not deliver as expected, the market often does not continue to imagine but rather compresses valuations. If we can still see activity, retention, and new scenarios moving forward, THORChain's position will be more solid; but if the data only looks good in the short term, the expected pullback will come quickly. In the end, whether the market recognizes this logic still depends on realization. Without realization, no matter how appealing the narrative is, it cannot support long-term prospects. #美司法部：不起诉加密开发者

DYDX｜dYdX The market is really starting to pay attention to dYdX again, often not because it suddenly became popular. More often, it's because the derivatives/DEX line has been brought back to the table, and dYdX just happens to be in that position. In terms of scale, it is roughly in the billion-dollar range, positioned in the derivatives/DEX track. What truly determines whether it can continue to be priced is not the hype, but whether the use cases are still happening and whether funds are still willing to stay. Instead of guessing whether it has the next phase, it's better to look directly at the data, such as user retention, revenue changes, trading depth, and new applications; these are more useful than slogans. Returning to the derivatives/DEX direction, whether dYdX is worth continuing to be priced does not depend on the volume of discussion, but on whether it can turn temporary attention into sustained usage. In terms of prospects, as long as there is real demand in the derivatives/DEX line, it will not completely lose its discussion value. However, the market is currently more focused on realization, so what’s more critical moving forward is not to tell new stories, but to truly execute the existing logic. It is not lacking visibility; what it lacks is continuous validation. As long as new users, sustained revenue, and application support do not keep up, even the strongest discussion will be hard to maintain in the long run. If we can still see activity, retention, and new scenarios moving forward, dYdX's position will be more solid; but if the data only looks good in the short term, the expected pullback will come quickly. Right now, the market does not have too many illusions about dYdX. Those who are optimistic continue to focus on realization, while those who are not optimistic will not turn back just because of a few stories. So don’t just look at its performance for one day; what’s truly important is whether it can gradually stabilize its position.

On the 7th, it rose by 17%, today it only pulled back by 2 points. It hit a low of 0.01104 and then was picked back up. Some people asked if it can't rise anymore? I tell you, this is called a "technical pullback." KAT closed today at 0.011556, down 2.4 points. The intraday high was 0.01207, and the low was 0.011044. A small bearish candle with a lower shadow, the body is not large. It closed slightly below MA20 but above MA5 and MA10. The 7-day increase is still 17.3%, and the 30-day is +2.4%. It has risen 10% from the bottom of 0.0105. This is only 0.01155. I personally believe this is a normal consolidation within a main upward wave, not a trend reversal. Today's low was 0.011044. It just hit the top of the launch platform from April 20. It was bought up right after dipping down. This indicates that there is capital willing to support at that position. The trading volume was 337 million KAT, amounting to 3.85 million U. This is a decrease in volume compared to the high volumes of the previous days. A decrease in volume during the pullback indicates low selling pressure. Panic selling was concentrated in the morning, and selling pressure weakened in the afternoon. The moving average system is converging upwards. MA5 is at 0.011517, MA10 is at 0.011515, and MA20 is at 0.011548. The three lines are almost overlapping, and the price is above MA5 and MA10. This is a normal technical correction. My judgment: In the short term, it may oscillate between 0.0110 and 0.0118. If it can stabilize above 0.0115, there is a chance to test 0.0120 again. If it falls below 0.0110, we need to observe the support at 0.0108. Technical points: 1. Price is 0.011556. Spot, no contract premium. 2. Moving averages MA5, MA10, MA20 are converging. The price is above two lines, slightly below MA20. The short-term direction is biased towards oscillation. 3. Today's low is 0.011044. This is higher than last week's low of 0.0106. The lows have been rising for four consecutive weeks, indicating a solid bottom structure. 4. Trading volume is 337 million KAT. Amounting to 3.85 million U, it is a volume contraction. Selling pressure is weakening, but to push higher, volume needs to increase. 5. Short-term support reference is 0.0112. Strong support is at 0.0110. Resistance level is 0.0117. It needs to return above 0.0116 to have a chance to test 0.0119. 6. Personal operation record: I have a base position near 0.01155. I will not add to my position for now. If it stabilizes around 0.0112 during the pullback, I will consider a small increase in position. Stop-loss reference is below 0.0109. Target expectation is 0.0117. (For thought sharing only, not an operational suggestion) The DeFi narrative of KAT is still ongoing, and it is well-known on the new coin list. After rising 17%, a 2-point pullback is very normal. For this kind of trend, I will hold my base position and observe. I won't sell unless it breaks below 0.0110. Risk warning: This article is only a personal opinion share. It does not constitute any investment advice, trading signals, or operational instructions. The digital asset market is highly volatile and carries a risk of going to zero. Readers should independently assess their risk tolerance and set stop-losses strictly. The author is not responsible for any losses incurred due to reliance on the content of this article. #美伊谈判僵局：三阶段方案遭特朗普否决

Repurchased and destroyed 370 million tokens, and also promised to use 50% of the transaction fees to buy back its own coins. PUMP dropped 5 points today, crashing from 0.002 to 0.00186. Is anyone scared by this bearish candle? Let me tell you, this kind of "bad news" is actually a good opportunity to wash out floating capital. PUMP closed today at 0.001863, down 5.3 points. The intraday high was 0.002033, and the low was 0.001740. A solid bearish candle wiped out half of the previous day's gains. It has dropped 2.7% over the past 7 days, but still has a +9.9% increase over the past 30 days. It has risen 16% from the bottom of 0.0016. This is only 0.00186. I personally believe this is a normal pullback in the main upward wave, not a trend reversal. Today’s low was 0.001740. It just hit the top of the launch platform on April 20. It didn’t break down further. This indicates that there is capital willing to buy at that level. That news—"PumpFun destroyed 370 million tokens and promised to use 50% of the transaction fees for buybacks." This is a solid positive news. The price didn’t rise but fell instead because market sentiment was dragged down by the overall market. Once the sentiment recovers, this fundamental improvement will eventually be priced in. The trading volume was 3.856 billion PUMP, with a value of 7.23 million U. It has decreased compared to the high volumes of the past few days, but the absolute value is not low. A drop in volume indicates significant divergence, but the buying support at low levels is also strong. The moving average system is still in a bullish arrangement. MA5 0.001840, MA10 0.001839, MA20 0.001815. The price is above all three moving averages, just pulling back to near MA5. The deviation is not large, which is a normal technical correction. My judgment: In the short term, it may fluctuate between 0.00175 and 0.00190. The buyback plan is real buying power, not just a story. If it can hold above 0.00174, there is a chance to attack 0.002 again. Technical points: 1. Price 0.001863. Spot, no contract premium. 2. Moving averages MA5, MA10, MA20 are in a bullish arrangement. The price pulling back to MA5 is a typical moving average correction. 3. Today’s low was 0.001740. It is higher than last week’s low of 0.00168. The lows have been rising for four consecutive weeks, indicating a solid bottom structure. 4. Trading volume was 3.856 billion PUMP. Value of 7.23 million U, a large volume correction. Sufficient turnover, panic selling has been washed out. 5. Short-term support reference at 0.00180. Strong support at 0.00174. Resistance at 0.00188. Only if it stands above 0.00185 can it test 0.00195. 6. Personal operation record: I have a base position near 0.00186. No additional positions for now. If it stabilizes near 0.00180, I will consider a small increase in position. Stop-loss reference below 0.00172. Target expectation 0.00190. (For thought sharing only, not investment advice) The buyback and destruction mechanism of PUMP is a hard support. This combination of fundamentals and technical corrections often presents opportunities. I will hold my base position and observe, not selling unless it breaks below 0.00174. Risk warning: This article is only a personal opinion sharing. It does not constitute any investment advice, trading signals, or operational instructions. The digital asset market is highly volatile and carries a risk of going to zero. Readers should independently assess their risk tolerance and set strict stop-losses. The author is not responsible for any losses incurred due to reliance on the content of this article. #美伊谈判僵局：三阶段方案遭特朗普否决